Bitcoin slid sharply over the weekend, breaking below $76,000 in thin trading 
and briefly dipping through the $75,000 area as selling accelerated late 
Saturday into Sunday. The move pushed BTC into a zone that technician Aksel 
Kibar has identified as a key band of horizontal support, roughly between 
$73.7K and $76.5K. The move didn’t come in a vacuum. Macro markets were 
already in a forced-risk-off posture, with a violent sell-off in precious 
metals feeding broader deleveraging dynamics, exactly the kind of tape that 
can amplify weekend volatility when liquidity thins out and stop levels get 
tested. Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? Kibar, a Chartered Market Technician and the 
founder of Tech Charts LLC, said in a series of posts on X that he’s watching 
the $73.7K and $76.5K closely, but not treating it as an automatic green light 
for longs. His message to traders: price reaching support is a location, not a 
signal, and the difference matters most when you’re trying to avoid catching a 
falling knife. In several posts dated Jan. 30 and Feb. 1 he stated that his 
process is built around classical chart patterns rather than “guessing” the 
low. “Reaching a support area is not in itself a classical chart pattern buy 
signal,” he wrote. “We need to see a bullish reversal chart pattern forming 
around support areas. But trading tactics differ. You might have a different 
way to take advantage of the recent price action.” Related Reading: Bitcoin’s 
Digital Gold Thesis Faces Reality As Gold Surges Ahead Kibar framed the 
current range as an area where a bottom could form, but emphasized that his 
approach is to wait for structure, specifically a reversal formation that 
changes the odds profile. On Jan. 30 he laid out why he won’t chase a level 
just because it’s on the map. “I’m not interested to find the support because 
I’m not trying to catch the falling knife,” he wrote. “I’m interested to find 
a bottom reversal pattern. A double bottom. A H&amp;S bottom. I will always miss 
the boat if it is a V reversal.” That trade-off is deliberate, he added, and 
it’s part of knowing your own constraints: “Important to know your strength 
and weaknesses.” In a separate post, Kibar linked the “base building” concept 
to a concrete trigger: a breakout above $91.2K, which he described as the 
completion point of a double-bottom scenario he had referenced earlier. “When 
I say we need a base building, some sort of a classical chart pattern 
(preferably with horizontal boundaries), I’m referring to the breakout above 
91.2K (completion of a double bottom),” he wrote, adding that confirmation is 
“even more crucial because we are below long-term average,” before he can 
“submit for bullish interpretation.” Kibar’s posts also pushed back on a 
common psychological trap in bottom-calling: confusing caution with fear. 
Responding to an X user who suggested he sounded bullish but reluctant to 
“make a call” to avoid being wrong, Kibar agreed with the setup but sharpened 
the motive. “Everything correct,” he replied. “Except not I don’t want to be 
wrong but to have higher conviction. We can’t act in markets with the fear of 
being wrong.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Is The Money Of The AI-Powered Economy: 
CryptoQuant CEO That distinction matters because it explains why his framework 
requires visible evidence of buyers stepping in, rather than a single level 
holding by default. When another user asked whether Bitcoin could be forming 
the right shoulder of a potential head-and-shoulders bottom, Kibar dismissed 
the timing: “Too early to start thinking about this.” In his most recent 
update, Kibar described the kinds of behaviors that, in his view, can hint at 
demand emerging around support. Instead of treating it as a checklist, he 
framed it as the “signs” that can show buyers are willing to defend the area: 
a pickup in activity and volatility, candlesticks that show rejection(such as 
doji-like structures with long lower wicks) and short-term reversal structures 
like double bottoms or head-and-shoulders bottoms. Kibar also introduced a 
market-structure point he said he learned while managing a large fund in the 
United Arab Emirates: “If there are no sellers, there will be no buyers.” He 
argued that large buyers often need meaningful supply to build size without 
moving price against themselves, and that heavy selling can sometimes be the 
condition that allows that accumulation, depending on motives and liquidity. 
He briefly extended that idea to Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), noting he 
wasn’t sure whether the firm “will be required (from an accounting 
perspective) to sell any assets,” but adding that, in his words, the market 
can be a “wild wild west,” where “some buyer out there might be after that 
chunk at a reasonable price.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $76,713. 
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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