Bitcoin’s 2026 bearish window is rapidly closing as corporate treasury 
accumulation accelerates and macro tailwinds build, tightening supply and 
reinforcing institutional demand, according to Jan3 CEO Samson Mow. Samson Mow 
Warns 2026 Bitcoin Bearish Window Is Closing Jan3 CEO Samson Mow shared on 
social media platform X on March 2 that he believes the window […]

Samson Mow Sees Bitcoin Bearish Pressure Eroding as Strategy, Metaplanet, Fed Shift Market Dynamics

US-Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend have pushed geopolitical risk back 
to the center of crypto markets, but in CryptoInsightUK’s latest weekly note, 
the immediate takeaway for XRP is not simple downside. Founder Will Taylor 
argues that the first shock may be arriving at a moment when bearish 
positioning is already crowded, creating conditions where XRP could hold up 
better than Bitcoin and Ethereum if the market absorbs the news without fresh 
breakdowns. Writing in the Week 184 edition of The Weekly Insight, Taylor 
framed the conflict first as a volatility event. “There could be extreme 
volatility in the near term,” he wrote, adding that this was also the kind of 
backdrop where bottoms can form “on the onset of bad news.” He pushed the 
point further in a longer passage that gets to the core of his market view: “I 
am not saying number three is the definite outcome here. But I am saying, and 
I have said this for a while, that when people are overly invested emotionally 
in an event and are deeply worried about it, that is often where markets form 
bottoms. Especially if you do not see strong follow through to the downside.” 
Related Reading: XRP Faces $650 Million Sell Risk As US-Iran Conflict Sparks 
Risk-Off Move That distinction matters for XRP because Taylor is not arguing 
that war is bullish for crypto in itself. He is arguing that the market’s 
reaction function matters more than the headline. In his read, Bitcoin 
initially sold off on the news, but the move lacked the kind of follow-through 
that would usually confirm a deeper washout. He noted that liquidity still sat 
lower on Bitcoin, around $60,000, and said he would still prefer to see that 
level swept before calling for a more durable move higher. Ethereum, in his 
telling, looked similar. Taylor said there was still downside liquidity near 
$1,720, but stressed that the larger pools of low-timeframe liquidity were 
sitting above price rather than below it. That left room for another dip, but 
not necessarily for a structurally bearish reset. Why XRP Looks Different XRP 
is where his framework becomes more interesting. Taylor argued that XRP had 
already done some of the work Bitcoin and Ethereum were still waiting to do. 
“XRP had a spike to the upside about ten days ago that Bitcoin and Ethereum 
did not have. It showed relative strength there,” he wrote. “And now XRP has 
already moved down into the liquidity pools that Bitcoin and Ethereum are 
still waiting to touch. So in a way, XRP has already done what the others have 
not.” Related Reading: XRP Triangle Could Point To Support Between $0.60 And 
$0.90 He stopped well short of calling that confirmation, but the implication 
was clear. If the market was entering a fear-driven macro event and XRP had 
already traded into nearby liquidity while its larger peers had not, then XRP 
could be better positioned if the selling pressure fades instead of 
accelerating. Taylor said he had been discussing the possibility of XRP 
leading altcoins and “potentially leading the market generally,” with this 
low-timeframe setup offering at least a hint in that direction. Taylor’s 
broader thesis rests less on the war itself than on market structure. He 
continues to argue that Bitcoin still has significant daily liquidity above 
current levels and can make new all-time highs, while altcoins outperform on 
the way there. He tied that view to Bitcoin dominance, where he said Bollinger 
Bands were as tight as they had ever been on the weekly and extremely 
compressed on the monthly. If that volatility resolves lower, altcoins would 
be positioned to take share. That is also why he ended the note on XRP against 
Ethereum. Taylor said the XRP/ETH chart “has started a new trend to the 
upside” and may be the beginning of a larger impulsive move. His closing 
framework was blunt: if Bitcoin pushes to new highs, if dominance weakens, and 
if XRP continues to hold momentum against Ethereum, then “XRP could be setting 
up for an explosive move.” At press time, XRP traded at $1.3437. Featured 
image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

US-Iran War Sparks Crypto Fear, But XRP Stands Out

Bitcoin faces mounting pressure from escalating geopolitical tensions, yet 
Bitwise says extreme risk spikes have historically preceded strong medium-term 
gains, positioning the cryptocurrency for a potential rebound as macro 
liquidity and inflation dynamics evolve. Bitwise Emphasizes Bullish Historical 
Pattern Following Major Geopolitical Risk Events Market volatility is 
intensifying as geopolitical tensions escalate. Bitwise Europe released […]

Bitwise Sees Bullish Setup for Bitcoin Despite Escalating Geopolitical Shockwaves

Elliptic’s initial tracing found many of the funds were sent to foreign crypto 
exchanges, potentially indicating capital flight from Iran amid rising 
uncertainty in the region.

Iranian crypto outflows spike 700% after US-Israeli airstrikes

Bitcoin has remained in a consolidation phase since its early February 
breakdown below the $70,000 threshold, oscillating around the mid-$60K region 
without establishing a clear directional bias. The loss of $70K marked a 
structural shift in short-term momentum, transitioning the market from trend 
continuation to range-bound stabilization. While volatility has moderated, 
underlying stress signals suggest that the correction may not be fully 
resolved. Related Reading: The Distribution Trap: Why Bitcoin’s Reserve Growth 
Proves Sellers Still Hold The Tape According to a recent report by CryptoQuant 
analyst Darkfost, Short-Term Holders (STH) are still carrying substantial 
unrealized losses. With Bitcoin trading near $66,000, this cohort’s average 
unrealized loss stands at approximately 26.3%. Historically, periods in which 
STH losses exceed 25% tend to coincide with advanced phases of bear markets 
rather than early corrective pullbacks. In previous cycles, these losses have 
occasionally expanded toward 40% during capitulation events before a durable 
bottom formed. The current reading, therefore, places the market in a zone of 
elevated psychological pressure. Short-term participants, who are typically 
more reactive to price fluctuations, remain underwater, increasing the 
probability of volatility spikes if key levels fail. Short-Term Holder Losses 
Signal Late-Stage Stress and Strategic Accumulation Zones The current 
configuration of Short-Term Holder positioning reflects a classic late- 
correction dynamic. When STH cohorts begin to carry meaningful unrealized 
losses — particularly above the 25% threshold — market psychology shifts from 
optimism to stress. Historically, these zones have coincided with attractive 
long-term accumulation windows, not because downside risk disappears, but 
because forced selling pressure gradually exhausts itself. Long-term investors 
deploying systematic DCA strategies have often benefited from entering during 
these compressed conditions. The relationship between STH profitability and 
trend development is equally instructive. Sustained bullish expansions 
typically begin once the average unrealized profit of STH reclaims positive 
territory. That shift signals renewed structural demand strong enough to lift 
recent buyers back into profit. However, excessive profitability can also 
destabilize trends. In this cycle, readings near 20% average profit have 
coincided with overheated conditions and subsequent pullbacks, as profit- 
taking accelerates. At present, with STH deeply underwater, the broader 
structure remains bearish from a cyclical standpoint. Momentum has not yet 
transitioned into expansion. Yet paradoxically, these stress phases often 
represent asymmetric positioning opportunities. The key distinction lies in 
timeframe: tactically fragile in the short term, but strategically 
constructive for disciplined capital deployment. Related Reading: Ethereum’s 
Market Order Imbalance Hits Record Negatives: $1,850 Is Now The Line In The 
Sand Bitcoin Compresses Below Moving Averages as $62K–$69K Range Tightens On 
the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin remains locked in a tight consolidation band 
around the $66,000 level after the sharp early-February breakdown. The 
structure is clearly corrective: price is trading below the 50, 100, and 
200-period moving averages, all of which are sloping downward. This alignment 
confirms short-term bearish momentum, even as volatility compresses. Repeated 
attempts to reclaim the 100-period moving average (green) have failed, 
reinforcing it as dynamic resistance near the $68,000–$69,000 zone. Meanwhile, 
the 200-period average (red), positioned higher around the low-$70Ks, marks a 
broader trend ceiling. As long as price remains beneath these levels, upside 
attempts are likely to encounter supply. Related Reading: Engine Stalled: How 
The $8 Billion ‘October Shock’ Left Bitcoin’s Spot Market In A Liquidity Trap 
On the downside, the $62,000–$63,000 region continues to act as horizontal 
support. The sharp wick earlier in February suggests aggressive liquidation- 
driven selling into that area, followed by a reflex bounce. However, 
subsequent rebounds have printed lower highs, indicating that buyers lack 
follow-through. Volume has tapered off compared to the breakdown phase, 
suggesting temporary equilibrium rather than accumulation. The current 
compression reflects indecision, not strength. A decisive 4-hour close above 
$69K would challenge the bearish structure, while a loss of $62K would likely 
trigger renewed downside expansion. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from 
TradingView.com

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