Bitcoin (BTC) is currently holding below the key $70,000 level. Still, a new 
report from data and research firm Ecoinometrics suggests that the market may 
not be building a base for recovery. Instead, the firm argues that the 
cryptocurrency remains vulnerable to another downward move, driven by three 
overlapping forces: weakening equity momentum, structural changes in Bitcoin’s 
volatility profile, and a Federal Reserve (Fed) that is steady but not 
supportive. Structural Headwinds For Bitcoin According to the report, Bitcoin 
no longer trades in isolation. It has become increasingly linked to equity 
markets, capital flows, and broader macroeconomic conditions. At the moment, 
that linkage is not working in its favor. Bitcoin is already showing signs of 
weakness, equity markets are losing steam, and the Federal Reserve is 
maintaining a neutral stance that offers little additional liquidity support. 
Together, those factors keep downside risks elevated. Related Reading: ‘Sell 
Bitcoin Now,’ Peter Schiff Warns, Predicts $20,000 Target On Breakdown While 
Bitcoin has attempted to stabilize in recent weeks, Ecoinometrics cautions 
that this does not resemble a clear bottoming pattern. Rather, it looks more 
like a pause within an ongoing bear phase. Structural headwinds are already in 
place, as highlighted by the firm, including continued outflows from Bitcoin 
exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a broader “risk-off” environment in financial 
markets. The report noted that Bitcoin is trading below its long-term trend, 
with its 200-day moving average (currently above $100,000) turning downward 
and rallies repeatedly failing beneath that level — a classic sign of a 
bearish structure. By contrast, the Nasdaq 100 has stalled for roughly three 
months, but its 200-day moving average is still rising. That suggests equities 
are slowing but have not yet entered a confirmed structural downturn. The 
distinction is important. When Bitcoin weakens on its own, declines can unfold 
gradually. However, history shows that when equities roll over decisively, 
Bitcoin tends to fall sharply alongside them. Lower Volatility, Higher 
Correlation Beyond price action, the firm highlights a deeper structural shift 
in Bitcoin’s behavior: a marked compression in volatility. In prior cycles, 
12-month realized volatility surged dramatically during both bull markets and 
subsequent crashes. This time, even after a full bear-bull-bear sequence since 
2022, volatility has not returned to those previous extremes. In fact, peak 
volatility in the current cycle has been materially lower. This change 
reflects who is driving demand. ETF flows now play a dominant role in shaping 
trends. These flows are typically larger, steadier, and more systematic than 
the retail-driven surges that characterized earlier cycles. Bitcoin, in other 
words, has become embedded within institutional portfolios, often sitting 
alongside technology and growth stocks. That shift brings advantages, 
including lower volatility and more predictable flow patterns. It may also 
strengthen Bitcoin’s long-term durability. However, it comes with a trade-off: 
deeper sensitivity to equity market drawdowns. Ecoinometrics asserts that as 
BTC becomes more integrated into the broader risk-on complex, it behaves more 
like a component of that system rather than a detached speculative asset. 
Downside Risks Grow On the policy front, Ecoinometrics suggests the Fed’s 
posture remains largely unchanged: inflation has improved but is not fully 
contained, and the labor market remains resilient. Related Reading: House 
Democrats Urge Treasury Probe Into Trump Family’s Crypto Venture As a result, 
rate cuts are not urgent, and rate hikes are not imminent. The communications 
index sits well below the tightening peak seen in 2022 and far above the 
crisis-level dovishness of 2020, placing current policy in the middle ground. 
For Bitcoin, that steady stance removes the risk of a sudden policy shock, but 
it does not provide a tailwind. The firm said in a fragile market, stability 
may be preferable to tightening, yet it offers little support if risk assets 
begin to slide. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

Why Bitcoin Could Be Headed For Another Drop: Research Firm Cites Three Key Risks

SEC signals regulatory clarity for payment stablecoins, allowing broker- 
dealers to apply a 2% net capital haircut and paving the way for broader 
tokenized securities activity under existing rules. SEC Clarifies Broker- 
Dealer Treatment of Payment Stablecoins Under Net Capital Rule The U.S. 
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Division of Trading and Markets 
issued a new FAQ […]

SEC Issues 2% Stablecoin Capital Guidance, Softening Regulatory Pressure on Institutional Exposure

Bitcoin only needs a “marginal amount of new demand” to push higher, according 
to macroeconomist Lyn Alden, who is watching for a potential peak in AI stocks 
as a signal.

Bitcoin’s bull catalyst could be AI stocks becoming ‘silly big’: Lyn Alden

t54.ai has launched an x402 “facilitator” on the XRP Ledger (XRPL), a payments 
relay that lets AI agents pay for API calls and digital services in-line with 
normal HTTP requests using XRP or RLUSD. The pitch is simple: turn pay-per- 
request into a native part of the web stack, no accounts, no API keys, and 
settlement that happens on-chain. AI Agents Can Now Pay Via XRP Ledger The 
release plugs XRPL into x402, an open payments standard built around the long- 
reserved HTTP status code 402 Payment Required. In an x402 flow, a client 
requests a resource, the server replies with a 402 and machine-readable 
payment requirements, and the client retries the request with proof of 
payment. Coinbase’s x402 documentation frames the goal as programmatic access 
“without accounts, sessions, or complex authentication,” so both humans and 
autonomous agents can pay for usage-based services directly over HTTP. Related 
Reading: The 200 Million XRP Exodus: Investors Swap Speculation For Private 
Custody On X, t54.ai described the facilitator as “now live on the XRPL,” 
adding that agents can pay with “XRP and RLUSD &#8211; no API keys, no accounts, no 
friction.” Another post positioned x402 as “the open standard for machine- 
native payments,” where the server responds with HTTP 402 “Payment Required” 
and the agent pays immediately, with the facilitator handling verification and 
settlement on-chain. Popular XRP community account BankXRP wrote via X: “t54ai 
just launched the x402 facilitator AI agents can now pay for API calls and 
services with frictionless $XRP or $RLUSD micropayments using the HTTP 402 
standard. No API keys. No accounts. Instant, sub-cent fees. Real machine-to- 
machine economy on the fastest, most scalable ledger in crypto.” t54’s XRPL 
deployment is designed to be “plug and play,” emphasizing no custody and no 
API keys. The public documentation for the XRPL x402 facilitator says it 
processes x402 payments on XRPL using payer-signed presigned Payment 
transaction blobs, and supports XRP plus IOU tokens including RLUSD (and 
USDC). Resource servers verify and settle by calling standard facilitator 
endpoints like /verify and /settle, mirroring the core x402 architecture where 
the facilitator is the chain-aware component that validates payment payloads 
and executes settlement. Related Reading: This Korean XRP Exchange Data Has 
The Community Losing It t54.ai also claims the system is already “in 
production” with BlockRunAI, a unified gateway that provides agents access to 
“30+ models (GPT, Claude, Grok, etc.).” In that integration, agents pay per 
request via x402, and the resulting payment volume “is now settling on XRPL,” 
effectively turning model inference and tool calls into metered on-chain 
commerce. Why This Is Bullish For XRP The “bullish” framing here isn’t about a 
single partnership logo, it’s about inserting XRPL into a broader emerging 
standard for agent-native commerce. x402 is explicitly designed to be network- 
agnostic, but in practice, standards only become real once developers can ship 
them with minimal ceremony. A working facilitator on XRPL means one more 
credible rail for high-frequency, low-value payments where the unit economics 
break traditional billing. It also cleanly links XRPL’s identity—fast 
settlement and low fees—to a use case that’s structurally growing: autonomous 
software paying other software. x402’s ecosystem pages and docs emphasize pay- 
per-use pricing and minimal integration overhead; that aligns with agent 
workflows where “thousands of API calls” and tool invocations need granular 
billing rather than subscriptions. None of this guarantees meaningful volume. 
But it does make the path to volume legible: more x402-enabled endpoints, more 
agent clients, and more facilitators that can clear payments cheaply and 
predictably. At press time, XRP traded at $1.4126. sd Featured image created 
with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

XRP Ledger Gets x402 Facilitator For AI Agent Payments: Why This Is Bullish

U.S. banking rules on bitcoin face mounting scrutiny as Strategy CEO Phong Le 
urges regulators to revisit Basel capital standards, warning current risk 
weights could hinder America’s ambitions to lead the global digital asset 
market. Strategy CEO Warns 1,250% Bitcoin Treatment by Basel Could Undermine 
America’s Crypto Ambitions Strategy (Nasdaq: MSTR) CEO Phong Le shared […]

Cryptocurrency price in AED