Dogecoin (DOGE) bounced back on Monday in a modest relief rally, climbing to 
about $0.086 after sliding to a multi-year low of $0.077 over the weekend. But 
when looking for clues on where the memecoin might go next, market analyst Ali 
Martinez released a technical update arguing that DOGE is sitting at a 
“critical structural inflection point.” In his view, the next phase could 
follow one of two clear paths, shaped by both higher-timeframe chart patterns 
and on-chain activity. Is A Macro Expansion Cycle Next? Martinez said Dogecoin 
is currently resting on a broad demand base that has historically supported 
major macro expansion cycles. He framed the setup as more than just a short- 
term rebound, pointing to long-running structural behavior. According to his 
analysis, since DOGE’s early days, the asset has tended to move through 
extended, multi-year consolidation channels—periods that compress volatility 
and effectively “transfer” supply over time. Those phases, he argues, 
typically come before larger structural bull markets. Related Reading: Has The 
Bitcoin Price Crash Ended Or Is This Just The Beginning? Analyst Answers 
Martinez says that, at the moment, Dogecoin is testing a specific technical 
area at $0.081, which is slightly lower than the current trading price. This 
level corresponds to the lower mid-range boundary of an active five-year 
parallel channel. The analyst emphasized that this key chart level has support 
behind the scenes on-chain. He referenced the UTXO Realized Price Distribution 
(URPD), which tracks the exact price levels where the tokens in circulation 
last moved. In Martinez’s description, there is a major cluster around $0.081: 
over 30 billion Dogecoin tokens were last transacted at roughly that same 
coordinate. The result, he says, is a large concentration of historical 
exposure that often becomes a psychological and financial “wall of defense,” 
making the area difficult for sellers to push through. Two Scenarios For 
Dogecoin When identifying the key levels to watch next, Martinez highlighted 
the $0.081 level, an active area where the URPD volume cluster overlaps with 
the channel mid-range. The second level is $0.058, which he calls the multi- 
year absolute channel floor. He then outlined two scenarios for what could 
happen next. Under Scenario A, the $0.081 volume block continues to absorb the 
market’s supply. If that support holds, Martinez believes the structure favors 
a steadier rebound and expansion back toward higher channel targets. Related 
Reading: XRP To $1 Or A Violent Reversal? Analyst Says Liquidity Setup Is 
Flashing Scenario B is more cautious. Martinez said that if macroeconomic 
headwinds intensify and Dogecoin closes weekly below $0.081, the chart 
structure would shift into what he called an extended valuation reset. In that 
case, the token could be pushed toward the lower portion of the macro channel, 
taking it directly to the $0.058 support floor—the multi-year level he 
highlighted as the ultimate baseline, which would also mean an additional 32% 
drop for the memecoin. Featured image created with OpenArt; chart from 
TradingView.com

Dogecoin (DOGE) bounced back on Monday in a modest relief rally, climbing to about $0.086 after sliding to a multi-year low of $0.077 over the weekend. But when looking for clues on where the memecoin might go next, market analyst Ali Martinez released a technical update arguing that DOGE is sitting at a “critical structural &#8230;

Dogecoin (DOGE) At $0.086–Two Scenarios Ahead, Including A New 32% Crash

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Dogecoin (DOGE) At $0.086–Two Scenarios Ahead, Including A New 32% Crash

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